08 May 2010

Unsatisfying results




Following a bruising campaign for all parties concerned, there is no clear winner. The spectre of a ‘hung’ parliament is now a reality and it seems no one has emerged in outright victory. The result, at time of writing, is now almost fully clear and it has led to political stalemate - something British voters are unaccustomed to. We have to go back to 1974 to get some idea of how the politicians will negotiate themselves around this difficult predicament.

One thing is certain: Gordon Brown will not lead a new government and he’ll have to yield to David Cameron in any agreement that is reached. Indeed the Labour party will itself be out of the picture.

The Conservatives have the upper hand and any deal or arrangement must centre on their leadership in any government that is formed out of this chaos. The ‘narrative’ the Tories will use in the media will be that the voters have rejected the Labour government. But this does not automatically give Cameron a mandate to lead the country – his party has fallen way short of the magic 326 seats to command a Common’s majority.

The most disappointed leader will not be Brown or Cameron. It will, in fact, be Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat leader). He and his party had hoped to bring in 100 plus in MP’s and this has not occurred. Instead they have lost seats – dropping from roughly 60 (since 2005) to now just over 50. The sad reality is that they have failed to achieve much of what was expected.

Clegg impressed many with his performances in all three television debates, however, we now know this supposed steely strength to have been built on clay. The Lib Dems couldn’t make the necessary breakthrough but, perversely, they may be involved in supporting a Cameron led administration. Joining in a coalition may not be such a good idea as this would tie them too closely to Tory policy. The ‘hung’ parliament may be a blessing in disguise and give Clegg an edge. It would be a big consolation prize for his party losing seats.

What everyone will be wanting to know is can there be a way out of this political thicket? Brown will remain prime minister for the moment. But, as Clegg has stated, it will fall to the largest party, in this case the Conservatives, which the Lib Dems will negotiate with.

In these uncertain times the only solution may be another general election to try and get a more decisive result. Until then much ‘horse-trading’ will ensue. The British voters may, by that stage, reach consensus on which shade of government they want to lead them in the second decade of the 21st century.

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